“Capacity reduction is clearly under way. Regulatory enforcement of qualifications and safety standards was arguably the most welcome development in 2025 for our industry.” - Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
Commercial drivers license regulation enforcement has been a recurring topic in supply chain headlines over the last year. At first glance, it might look like a knee-jerk reaction to a few very high-profile crashes that had tragic consequences, but it is much more than that.
The attention focused on CDL administration is not really about paperwork or politics; it is about freight market capacity. Simply put, there are too many trucks on the road and that is driving down rates, making it harder for carriers to operate profitably.
A lot of that capacity came online in response to COVID demand and rate spikes, but it is proving harder - and slower - to recede than it was to build.
If the market can’t adjust on its own, there are plenty of levers that can be pulled to help it along. The concern is that at least one of those levers, CDL enforcement, would be so effective that it might destabilize the whole freight system.
Too Many Trucks Chasing Too Little Freight
The truckload market remains in what many have described as a multi-year freight recession. Observers such as Ben Ames, writing for DC Velocity, note there are “too many trucks competing to haul a shrunken pool of freight.” That is allowing shippers to move loads at rates that are unsustainable for carriers.
This dynamic is strikingly similar to what we’re currently seeing in ocean freight, where overcapacity continues to weigh on rates despite geopolitical disruptions.
In ocean shipping, companies are opting to take longer routes around the Horn of Africa, presumably to safely avoid the Suez Canal, but it has a second benefit as well. These extended journeys also function as a pressure valve, absorbing capacity without formally removing vessels from the water.
In trucking, enforcement is beginning to play that role, and perhaps a bit too well.
Pull in Case of Emergency
The Federal government clearly recognizes CDL enforcement as a de facto capacity lever, but it is a large lever and must be wielded with care.
On the one hand, pulling this one lever could solve the capacity problem and improve highway safety at the same time. On the other hand, it would have such a large impact that it would deliver an unwelcome shock to the system.
In November, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued a stay on that rule and allowed states to continue issuing non-domiciled CDLs. Then, in December, the court paused litigation as well as enforcement so the FMCSA could review the approximately 8,000 public comments received and consider appropriate revisions.
This step preserves the status quo for affected drivers, and, practically speaking, it offers a (welcome) opportunity to avoid a sudden national capacity shock.
The legal system is ultimately acting as a brake here, slowing capacity removal to avoid destabilizing freight flows. The rule review may have started in response to high visibility crashes, but as soon as everyone involved realized the scale of the problem, and therefore the impact of an overly blunt solution, I think there has been more than one case of cold feet.
Looking for a Gradual Solution
Many of the headlines have focused on English language proficiency enforcement. As of December 18, 2025, over 10,000 CDL drivers had been placed out of service for violating this requirement, according to data mined by Fusable’s MC Advantage.
These violations were always enforceable under federal law, but a 2016 FMCSA memorandum discouraged states from placing non-English-proficient drivers out of service, a policy that shaped enforcement behavior for nearly a decade.
Now the pendulum may have swung too far… leading to too many unqualified and noncompliant drivers on the road.
Reversing the 2016 guidance didn’t create new rules, it reactivated the need for old ones, and led us to where we are today, with too many questionable drivers but no gentle way to bring the numbers down.
Prolonged Uncertainty Ahead
Perhaps it is because full enforcement of the new rule has been paused, but freight rates have not moved meaningfully at the national level despite drivers being taken off the road.
DAT’s Ken Adamosaid English language proficiency enforcement has “absolutely not” impacted rates, attributing recent changes to “90% seasonality.”
At the same time, DAT analyst Dean Croke emphasized rate sensitivity, noting that “a one percentage point change in capacity can have a huge impact on spot rates,” especially since spot represents only about 15 percent of the total freight market.
These views can coexist. Enforcement impacts are showing up in some specific lanes, regions, and with time-sensitive freight, but not so much in national averages.
The DOT has acknowledged that drivers placed out of service in one state were later stopped elsewhere without inspectors being alerted. Carrier-level out-of-service status is visible, but driver-level out-of-service conditions often require manual review, limiting realistic real-time enforcement.
Capacity reduction is clearly underway, but it is not currently controlled or uniform. Courts, enforcement limitations, and uneven compliance are shaping outcomes more than policy design, creating pockets of disruption before any broad rate movement appears. The risk for supply leaders is not a sudden national shock, but a period of prolonged uncertainty where reliability erodes first and pricing follows later.
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