When Maersk confirmed that one of its vessels had successfully transited the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait in mid-January, the headline was easy to misread as a turning point. In reality, it was something far more nuanced — and far more revealing about the current state of global ocean freight.
The U.S.-flagged Maersk Denver completed a two-day passage through the Red Sea and Suez Canal on January 11–12, 2026, marking Maersk’s second such transit in nearly two years. For the world’s second-largest ocean container carrier, this was not a casual decision. It was a calculated test, not to mention a signal to the market.
Why This Ship, Why Now?
Maersk is taking what it repeatedly describes as a “stepwise approach” to resuming Suez Canal transits. The company framed the Denver voyage as an “additional sailing” following a similar test transit by the Singapore-flagged Maersk Sebarok in December 2025.
In my opinion, it is notable that the Maersk Denver is U.S.-flagged. In the current geopolitical environment, a U.S.-flagged vessel likely carries a lower perceived risk profile than an Israeli-flagged ship, but still sits high on the list of potential targets. That choice alone underscores how carefully Maersk is probing the limits of what is now considered “acceptable” risk.
Maersk emphasized that safety protocols were applied throughout the transit. “The safety of our crew, vessels and cargo remains of utmost importance to us, and the necessary safety measures were applied during transit,” the company said in an official statement. Customers with cargo onboard were notified directly, although it remains unclear whether that communication came before the vessel entered the corridor or after the fact.
The Economic Pressure to Shorten Routes
The incentive to return to the Suez Canal is clear. A voyage via the Suez Canal covers roughly 8,500 nautical miles and takes about 26 days. Routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope stretches that distance to approximately 11,800 miles and adds around 10 days to the journey.
Before Houthi attacks disrupted traffic in late 2023, the Suez Canal accounted for roughly 10–12% of global seaborne trade, making it the fastest link between Europe and Asia.
At the same time, carriers are under mounting financial pressure. U.S. import demand has weakened in part due to tariffs, ocean freight capacity currently exceeds demand, and spot rates have fallen accordingly. These dynamics are squeezing carrier profits and creating strong motivation to return to the shorter, cheaper Suez route as soon as it can be done without unacceptable risk.
A Changing Security Backdrop
The security calculus itself may be shifting. Iran, which has supported the Houthis with funding and weapons, is now facing rising domestic protests, complicating its ability to project power externally. Meanwhile, gCaptain reports that Red Sea vessel traffic plunged by roughly 60% after attacks began in October 2023, with more than 100 merchant ships targeted since then.
Not Everyone Is Rushing Back
Maersk is not alone in cautiously re-entering the corridor. CMA CGM has already sent several vessels through the Suez Canal when conditions allowed, including two transits in December and the passage of the Jacques Saade, described as the largest containership to use the route in two years.
Others remain hesitant. Hapag-Lloyd has stated it does not currently plan to resume Suez transits, even after Maersk’s announcement.
A “Win” That Comes With Consequences
There is also an irony embedded in a successful reopening. Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, has warned that broader resumption of Suez Canal transits could reduce overall ship demand by around 10% by releasing capacity back into the market.
In other words, even a safe and stable Suez Canal reopening is not an unqualified win for ocean carriers. Shorter routes may lower costs, but they also threaten to exacerbate overcapacity and push rates down further.
Simon Heaney of Drewry Shipping Consultants summed up the cautious optimism well: “By the end of 2026, we estimate things will start to look like they were before the Houthis attack started. The risk level has reduced, so they’re prepared to test the waters. But the Houthis aren’t particularly reliable.”
Testing, Not Trusting
Maersk’s January 15 announcement that it will restart Suez Canal usage on its MECL service beginning January 26 marked an escalation from testing to limited operational change — and investors noticed. Maersk’s share price fell roughly 5% following the news.
That reaction underscores the reality: isolated transits are not the same as a fully reopened route. As Trans INFO put it, the Red Sea is being “tested rather than trusted again.”
For shippers, carriers, and global supply chains, Maersk’s Red Sea voyages are less about declaring victory — and more about learning how much risk the system is willing to tolerate next.