If only supply chain predictions were as accurate as they are plentiful, especially this time of year. Given how volatile 2025 was, I’m genuinely impressed by anyone who has enough of a vision for what is likely to happen next that they are willing to put it into writing.
Granted, lots of predictions go a bit like, “Next year is likely to be dominated by the business challenge we make money solving…” That said, in a scan of recent articles, I found a number of really compelling thoughts about 2026.
Here are half of my picks for the top 2026 supply chain predictions, not ranked in any particular order, and with no guarantees for how likely they are to come true. To hear the whole list, click play below and listen in!
Expect More Supply Chain Localization
According to a survey of 1,800 global executives done by Prologis and The Harris Poll, 58 percent are expecting supply chains to become more localized by 2030.
Maybe this is reading too deeply into the statement, but I wonder if those 1,800 executives are talking about the supply chains they manage, or supply chains as a whole. Do they feel peer pressure to localize because they presume everyone else is doing it, or are they really making it happen?
I also think it is interesting that the trend is labeled localization and not reshoring. That might include reshoring, but it could also suggest sourcing in the same hemisphere or region. Or, if we want to go all the way in the other direction, it could be hyperlocalization - literally locating production where their consumers are.
It is also interesting that the prediction is localization by 2030… by then, we’re talking about systemic change. It won’t necessarily be permanent, but the conditions in place would require longer to unwind.
Supply Chain Uncertainty is Going to Affect Sourcing
According to Moody’s, the uncertainty (as well as the added costs) caused by tariffs will lead to “sourcing paralysis” and “sourcing reconfigurations.” Companies find themselves in a place where they need to develop and onboard new suppliers, and that is leading to delays and added costs.
I also imagine that might refer to delayed decisions about contract awards. For instance, as of December 17th, we are still awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court about the legality of the Trump Administration tariffs, especially the ones established under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Company decisions can’t be delayed forever, but if they can be delayed a little longer, companies might as well wait and allow themselves the flexibility to take the latest trade conditions into consideration.
We Will Close the Decision-to-Data Gap
According to reporting from SupplyChainBrain, consultancy West Monroe thinks the goal for 2026 will be to have reliable data available sooner after making a decision, even if it is not available before the decision must be made.
As they point out, companies had to hustle in 2025, and they often were not able to wait for solid data to be available. That meant a delay before they could determine whether they had made the right decision.
It is so interesting that the goal is not to have data available in the moment… but to have it sooner after making a decision. It doesn’t sound ideal, but it does sound like a real step in the right direction.
Not to be a party pooper, but I would like to point out that AI can’t solve all of our problems at high speed if we don’t have input data to offer it until after a decision has to be made and carried out.
Reconfiguration Will Replace Redundancy
Infios believes that just having a solid backup plan will no longer be enough to constitute resilience. Companies will have to be able to make changes more quickly… although in light of West Monroe’s prediction about the data-to-action gap, challenges will remain.
If we don’t have data in time to validate a decision, we certainly don’t have it in time to make a better decision in the moment. That said, as Infios puts it, “Adaptability, not redundancy, becomes the new resilience metric. The most robust networks will be those that can flex dynamically while maintaining service continuity.”
Small Suppliers Will Present the Greatest Cyber Risk
According to Insurance Edge, “As businesses adopt more cloud services and rely on a broader network of suppliers, smaller vendors are becoming the preferred entry point for attackers. Many organisations still lack visibility into the cyber risks posed by interconnected systems.”
Corporate systems are more integrated than ever before. This could mean risk from a point solution lodged somewhere in the tech stack, or exposure created through payment or consumer-facing systems.
As Brian Sibley, Virtual CTO at Espria, pointed out in the Insurance Edge article, “Supply chain attacks are rising because attackers know it’s often easier to compromise a partner than the target itself. Continuous monitoring across your extended ecosystem is no longer optional, it’s fundamental to stopping threats before they move laterally.”
So if you work for a company that has made a point of doing business with smaller suppliers, or piloting smaller tech solutions… it is probably time to revisit that infosec questionnaire - and be sure to read the responses you receive in return.
Thank you for reading and listening in 2025! Tune in on January 8th for the first episode of 2026!
