I have the opportunity to spend the next two days at the ISM2025 conference in Orlando, catching up with friends in the industry, learning more about new technology solutions, and sitting in on some of the sessions that ISM has planned for their 2025 World Conference.
ISM2025 started with an opening fireside chat between Kevin O’Leary—entrepreneur, investor, and star of Shark Tank—and ISM CEO Tom Derry. They pulled back the curtain on the realities faced by a portfolio of over 50 companies operating in today’s volatile climate.
The conversation covered entrepreneurship, risk management, and geopolitics. It was the geopolitics sections of the keynote that likely held the biggest interest for attendees:
Tariffs Are the New VAT
“What Trump is essentially doing right now is putting a VAT tax here. It’s called a tariff. If it ends up being a reciprocal 10 percent tariff, the VAT tax in America is 10 percent.”
For O’Leary, tariffs are not random actions but a deliberate attempt to level a decades-old imbalance. The outcome he sees? A 10 percent reciprocal tariff regime. O’Leary believes that procurement professionals should prepare for that scenario and localize or de-risk based on that baseline - but it may take until the U.S. midterm elections next year to play out.
Tariffs Aren’t Just About China
“We can’t sell our grains to England. They tariff us out of the game. Why is that okay?”
Many procurement professionals view tariffs through a U.S.-China frame, but O’Leary emphasizes a widespread imbalance—even with allies like the UK and EU. He predicts more pressure across the board to bring foreign policy in line with domestic trade. Supplier market evaluations may need to factor in geopolitical friendliness as much as cost and quality.
Risk Is Now a Core Supply Chain Variable
“There is a philosophy right now to mitigate risk at the cost of margin.”
COVID-19 and global trade volatility have forced a reset. From hoarding glass for wine bottles to rebalancing geographic exposure, companies that once optimized for cost are now making distribution and sourcing decisions through a risk lens. That said, data is the fuel to make procurement and supply chain decisions that save money - boosting profit margins - that mitigate more expensive risk mitigation strategies. O’Leary cited the boom in direct-to-consumer shipping accelerated by COVID-19 as a key strategy.
Digital channels and platforms like Amazon have unlocked operational visibility previously unavailable to suppliers. O’Leary says AI-enabled insights now allow him to shift wine inventories in response to regional preferences in near real time. Procurement needs to push for more visibility, earlier in the chain.
USA and Canada need each other to counter the growing threat of China.
“Canada as the 51st state? That's the noise. The signal is we've got to merge these two economies because there'd be no problem fending off China with the resources Canada has and the domestic market the U.S. has.”
O’Leary shared interesting perspectives on the current relationship between Canada and the United States. He believes that President Trump was disrespected by Canadian leadership during his first term, leading to some of the noise we see today, but that underneath this dynamic is a real problem and an opportunity - a need from Canada to grow their own domestic economy, and then need of the U.S. to counter the growing power of China.
O’Leary suggested an EU-like partnership with no tariffs at all between the two countries, and a common currency - the U.S. dollar, and finally an EU-type passport system that drives freedom of movement. The combination of the U.S. domestic economy, “unlimited energy” from Canada, and a joint protection of Canada’s northern border is a necessary defensive and offensive move to counter China.
If you’ve watched Shark Tank, you know Kevin O’Leary, a.k.a. “Mr. Wonderful”, does not pull punches. Like and agree with his perspective or not, procurement should take notice: both in terms of what he observed and also what he and others in decision-making positions are doing in response.
